American analyst: The real obstacle to ratification of the protocols by the Turkish parliament is the lack of progress on settling the Nagorno-Karabakh issue
Washington. Isabel Levine – APA. “The decision of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives on “Armenian genocide” doesn’t mean the end of ratification of the Turkish-Armenian protocols and the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations, Stephen Larrabee, senior analyst and Distinguished Chair in European Security at the Washington DC based think tank RAND Organization told APA’s Washington correspondent.
“The real obstacle to ratification of the protocols by the Turkish parliament is the lack of progress on settling the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Without some visible progress toward resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the Turkish parliament is unlikely to ratify the protocols” – Mr. Larrabee said.
According to the analyst, Congress’s Committee vote will annoy many Turks but will not seriously harm US-Turkish relations as long as the resolution is not put to a vote before the full House of Representatives.
“It is the vote before the full House that is most important not the committee vote. As noted above, the administration now seems to have an agreement that the resolution will not be put to a floor vote in the House. According to news reports, the Obama administration has achieved an agreement with the House leadership that the resolution will not be put to a floor vote. If the reports are true, this should defuse the potential crisis” – he added.
Another analyst, Mark Meirowitz, who holds a doctorate in Politics and teaches undergraduate courses in Politics, History and Law at various colleges in New York, believes that, the US House Committee resolution was "unnecessary".
“I do not believe that it is the appropriate function of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs to become the tribunal or platform to evaluate historical events. In my opinion, the Armenian Genocide Resolution will harm US-Turkish relations, serves no useful purpose and should not be approved” – analyst told APA’s Washington correspondent.
According to him, the impact of the passage of the House Committee resolution is harmful mostly in a symbolic way.
“The Turkish government needs to remain calm about this, and devote its energies to working out a rapprochement with Armenia; including getting the scholars commission established to study the events in Armenia. So long as the full House does not take up the resolution, the damage will be limited. I do note that even if the House passed it, which would be a terrible development, such a resolution would not be binding”, - said Mr. Meirowitz, who is also a business lawyer in New York.
Originally appeared on Azeri Press Agency (en.apa.az) on March 9th 2009